As I've written about in the past on this website, InTrade (Previously Tradesports) is a betting exchange that estimates probabilities of different outcomes based on the collective wisdom of its gamblers. This method has repeatedly been found to offer more realistic predictions about election outcomes than opinion polls.

For the last month, the market for the winner of the Democratic Nomination has been fairly static, with Hillary Clinton at around 50%, Barack Obama at 30%, Al Gore at 10% and John Edwards at 6-7%. However, over the last 12 hours, the market has been moving rapidly in Obama's favor.

As of Oct 25th 2006, Barack Obama is the candidate most likely to beat Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries, according to Tradesports, an online betting exchange that estimates the probability of different outcomes based on where gamblers are willing to put their money.

According to the gamblers, Hillary has a 52.5% chance of securing the nomination. Obama stands at 12.5%, Al Gore at 11% and John Edwards at 8.1%.